Government of Canada Takes Action to Strengthen Housing Financing

The Honourable Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance, today announced a number of measured steps to support the long-term stability of Canada's housing market and continue to encourage home ownership for Canadians.

"Canada's housing market is healthy, stable and supported by our country's solid economic fundamentals," said Minister Flaherty. "However, a key lesson of the global financial crisis is that early policy action can help prevent negative trends from developing."

The Government will therefore adjust the rules for government-backed insured mortgages as follows:

• Require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed rate mortgage even if they choose a mortgage with a lower interest rate and shorter term. This initiative will help Canadians prepare for higher interest rates in the future.
• Lower the maximum amount Canadians can withdraw in refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent from 95 per cent of the value of their homes. This will help ensure home ownership is a more effective way to save.
• Require a minimum down payment of 20 per cent for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties purchased for speculation.

"There's no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps today to help prevent one. Our Government is acting to help prevent Canadian households from getting overextended, and acting to help prevent some lenders from facilitating it," said Minister Flaherty. "If some lenders aren't willing to act themselves, we will act. These measures demonstrate the Government is committed to taking action when necessary to support the long-term stability of a sector that is so vital to our economy and the financial well-being of Canadian families."

These adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework are intended to come into force on April 19, 2010.

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OTTAWA, November 2, 2009 — Housing starts have started to recover and are expected to continue to improve in the second half of 2009. Starts are expected to reach 141,900 for the year and will increase to 164,900 for 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report.

“We expect housing markets across Canada to strengthen leading into and over the course of 2010 as economic conditions improve”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

“Demand for existing homes has rebounded since the beginning of the year. In addition, lower inventory levels characterize both the new and existing home markets. As a result, stronger housing demand will be reflected in higher levels of housing starts in 2010”, said Mr. Dugan.

The strong pace of MLS^{® 1} sales seen in the second and third quarters of this year reflects, in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters and is not likely to be sustained. The level of sales is expected to move back closer in line with anticipated economic conditions. As a result, existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS^®), will reach 441,300 units in 2009 and increase to 445,150 units in 2010. The average MLS^® price is expected to be $312,950 in 2009 and $324,500 in 2010.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

* The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on information available as of October 1, 2009. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

¹ The term MLS^® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Data are for 10 provinces.

Information on this release:

Charles Sauriol
CMHC
Media Relations
613-748-2799
csauriol@cmhc-schl.gc.ca 

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Prices, Rates Climb

Gary Marr, National Post

Bidding wars and higher interest costs have led to the inevitable -- an increase in the cost of owning a home for the first time in five quarters, says a new index produced by Royal Bank of Canada.

The bank says home-ownership costs are up, something that has not happened since the spring of 2008. Despite the increase, costs are still off the peak of this housing cycle.

Royal Bank says 45.8% of pre-tax household income was needed to service the cost of owning a standard detached home in the third quarter of this year. That was up 1.2 percentage points from a quarter ago but well off the high of 52.3% hit in spring 2008. The record high was 57.1%, reached in the second quarter of 1990.

"Home affordability has deteriorated in all provinces and major markets in Canada due to a slight rise in key mortgage rates and appreciation in property values," said Robert Hogue, senior economist at Royal Bank.

Figures released this month from the Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents 100 boards across the country, show the trend of escalating prices is not slowing down. The Ottawa-based group said existing home prices were up 20.7% last month from October, 2008, the largest year-over-year increase in 20 years.

Those price increases have come as interest rates have also started to rise. Mr. Hogue said the 5.4% posted rate for a five-year closed mortgage, reached in the second quarter, was the lowest since Royal Bank started doing the study in 1985. Rates climbed to 5.73% in the third quarter for a five-year closed mortgage. The posted rate is generally at least one percentage point higher than what consumers can get on a discounted basis.

Prices have also been hit by supply shortages. New listings last month in the country's 25 largest markets were off 16% from a year ago. New-home construction is on the rise but has not been able to respond fast enough to meet demand.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, expects the supply-side problem to improve in the spring, a time more families consider selling to coincide with the end of the school year. "It's a much more common time for people to list their homes than this time of year," said Mr. Soper. "I suspect the supply-side of this problem will ease considerably."

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OTTAWA – October 15th, 2009 – National resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales numbered 127,941 units in the third quarter, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter. Building on two previous quarterly increases, seasonally adjusted MLS® home sales activity now stands 48 per cent above the low reached in the fourth quarter last year.

"Momentum for sales activity remained strong throughout the third quarter," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "Low interest rates, rebounding consumer confidence and an improving overall sense of economic security continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market."

Seasonally adjusted sales activity in the third quarter was up from the previous quarter in over 80 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Vancouver (34 per cent), Toronto (11 per cent), and Calgary (19 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Some 42,958 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada in September 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents an increase of 1.5 per cent from August, and lifts seasonally adjusted activity 63 per cent above the low in January.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales activity remained strong throughout the quarter. Resale activity in September 2009 posted the fourth consecutive increase from year-ago levels, all of which exceeded 15 per cent. Sales numbered 42,497 in September, up 17 per cent year-over-year and a new record for the month. Year-over-year activity increases in Toronto (28 per cent) and Vancouver (124 per cent) were the driving force behind the increase in actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in September.

Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year. The national average price continues to be skewed upward by a sustained increase in sales activity, including a sharp rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum, in some of Canada’s priciest markets.

The national MLS® residential average price surpassed all previous monthly levels in September 2009, rising 13.6 per cent year-over-year to $331,602. July and August also posted new average price records for their respective months. A number of provinces set new average price records for the month of September, and Ontario posted the highest average price on record.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September 2009.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market edged up in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were up one per cent from the previous quarter to 199,824 units. The increase reflects a quarterly rise in the number of new listings in British Columbia and Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador. New listings remained stable or continued to retreat in other provinces.

While the small rise in seasonally adjusted new listings suggests that the number of homes coming onto the market may soon begin to edge higher, the number of new listings remains well down from year-ago levels. Barring a sudden unforeseen spike in levels, new listings are likely to remain down from year-ago levels for some time.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) new listings were down 12.5 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2008 after posting year-over-year decreases in each of the previous quarters. Newfoundland & Labrador is the only province in which new listings were up from year-ago levels.

An increase in sales activity and fewer new listings are drawing down inventories compared to year-ago levels. There were 208,215 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of September 2009, down 16 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest decline in more than six years.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.9 months in September 2009. This is down slightly compared to August, and remains well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® home sales increased 20 per cent on a quarter-overquarter basis to $42.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the highest level on record. New provincial records were also set in British Columbia and Ontario, which propelled the national figure to a new high.

"Monthly sales activity remained on a strong upward trajectory throughout the third quarter in British Columbia, while showing signs that it may be topping out in other provinces," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "On balance, this suggests that sales activity may be starting to plateau after having climbed rapidly earlier this year."

"Headline average price increases over the rest of the year are expected to prompt sellers to return to the market after having retreated to the sidelines late last year and earlier this year," he added. "An increase in new listings will help keep a lid on price increases. Price increases over the rest of 2009 and early next year are likely to reflect declining average prices late last year and earlier this year."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and
national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types